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The following article is written with the intent of
highlighting what I consider to be important elements specific
to day trading. The eight points which I expand upon give an
overview of the day trading process and its requirements, to aid
you in deciding whether day trading as a profession is right for
you or not.
Markets
The first and foremost consideration for day trading is market
selection. Not all futures markets provide an opportunity for
day trading. Markets with low intraday volatility do not
generate enough price movement to justify commission costs and
potential profits. A day trader needs to seek markets with high
intraday price volatility and change. Based on previous research
of market volatility the financial markets such as the S&P 500,
Treasury Bonds and Currencies present the best vehicles for day
trading.
When discussing volatility, you need to consider a few
different concepts carefully. Without getting bogged down with
too many technicalities, I call your attention to the following:
Volatility refers to the rate of change on an intraday or daily
basis. As a day trader, your interest lies in which market
offers the widest price swings in a day. The following example
demonstrates how high levels of volatility can also be a
"two-edged sword". The S&P 500 futures market has shown an
average price range (high minus low) in the past 4 years between
17 to 26 points. This is based on research of S&P daily price
ranges from 1998 to 2002 (last 200 days in 2002).
|
Year |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
Average Range |
17.6 |
20.8 |
26.1 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
Figure 1. The Average Daily Range in the S&P Futures Market
The data in Figure 1 shows you that if you have the right
methodology and systematic approach, you can certainly make a
considerable amount of money in this particular arena. However,
the very same market is also capable of exhibiting wild, extreme
and violent intraday swings. As an example, examine small time
frame bar charts (1 through 5 minute) and observe how much price
can change in so little time. Three point moves ($750 in big S&P
futures contract) can be found on 3 minute bars at times - which
is great for profit, but must also be viewed as potential risk.
This volatility translates into the fact that you are capable of
losing $750 to $1250 in minutes - which might be way too risky
for your equity capital. In short, you must learn to distinguish
and clarify what you mean by acceptable volatility. Gauging
volatility in a market helps you to maximize your profit
potential and minimize your risk. Based on research, markets
like the S&P 500, Bonds and Currencies offer the best conditions
for day trading with regards to volatility, liquidity and
access. Of the three groups, the S&P’s have gained the
reputation and recognition as being a true day traders market.
It is composed of approximately 85% day traders and 15% position
traders. The following points discuss the distinct differences
between day and position trading.
Technical vs. Fundamental
Day traders rely heavily upon technical indicators - as a
contrast to the position trader who makes use of fundamental and
economic leading indicators. Tricks of the trade for day traders
include specific chart formations, intraday support and
resistance points as well as high, low, opening and closing
prices of the day. For the position trader however, intraday
activity of a market has less significance than overall market
behavior and direction. The day trader is more of a Technician -
while his counterpart, the position trader is more like a
Fundamentalist. The day trader may choose to utilize a variety
of technical indicators for the decision process of entering and
exiting trades. There are over 100 indicators available for all
the charting programs marketed. The intention of these lagging
indicators is to help you determine whether a market is in a
trend or about to reverse its direction. There are two types of
indicators available: Static and Dynamic (also referred to as
Adaptive). Static indicators have a fixed input for the variable
and its settings are based upon the notion that the market will
repeat its past price history and movement identically and
repeatedly. Adaptive indicators attempt to take into account new
market conditions and make corresponding changes to input values
accordingly. Overall, a typical day trader relies upon his/her
selected indicators for trading decisions - which therefore
implies that they reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its
implication of the Random Walk Theory. (We will expand upon
these concepts in future articles).
Profit Target
It’s very unlikely that one will make a "killing" on any
particular intraday trade. Day traders look for relatively
smaller profits and fewer losses. Position traders on the other
hand, get in and out of many trades, with the hopes of
eventually getting in on a meaningful and sustained trend. This
means more losses of small value with a lower percentage of
winning trades overall - but significant profits on winning
trades to offset the costs of "finding" the best entry point.
Overall, the mathematics for each of these trading styles are
quite different. When you evaluate a day trader or day trading
methodology, you need to see a higher percentage of winning
trades with relatively small losses. The position trader will
typically have a higher frequency of losers that are small, but
much larger profits on winning trades.
Capital
The capital required for day trading is substantially less than
for position trading. For every contract you take on as a
position trader, you need to post margin in your account, as
required by the exchanges. Trading the same market and assuming
the same strategy on an intraday day trade will typically
require much less capital for margin. For example, a position
trader needs to have a minimum of $15,000 per contract to trade
the S&P with overnight positions. The day trader is able to post
half that amount (and sometimes even less) for his intraday
trades. This means that as a day trader, you are able to more
effectively utilize your capital than the position trader since
your equity can work in more trades at the same time, bringing
increased profits to the successful trader.
Time Required
Day trading requires more time and attention than position
trading. You need to monitor your trades constantly until all
positions are closed out. Position trading requires much less
time and day-to-day attention. With proper money management,
long term traders can leave their positions unattended for days
or even weeks. By contrast, in day trading you will need to
watch, evaluate, adjust and change your positions many times
during the day. The very nature of day trading and its
associated conditions and intensity will preclude the majority
of investors from being able to participate due to their regular
jobs and commitments. Although some commercially available
systems and tutors boast the ability to day trade markets with
little to no intraday monitoring, they should be viewed with
caution and suspicion due to the nature and character of the
markets. Day trading is a full time profession and must be
treated as such if you want to succeed. Ask yourself the
following when you consider the possibility of day trading for a
career: can you make enough profit after commission
costs, data feed costs, program/educational costs to justify
your new endeavor as a trader? Does the potential profit justify
your time? The decision to day trade full time requires
serious consideration before committing yourself . Day trading
is a career and occupation - not a hobby or amusement.
Commission Costs
It will cost you more in commissions day trading than in
position trading. In day trading, you might have to enter and
exit positions a few times in a given day, whereas with position
trading you enter and exit trades with much less frequency. You
therefore need to look at the cost of "doing business" when
evaluating a trading methodology and system. There are many ways
to reduce the commission costs incurred when day trading. These
include but are not limited to: On-line trading via the
internet, Discount trading and negotiating with potential
brokers when shopping around for a suitable candidate. As a day
trader, you need to get quick and accurate fills. If you decide
to trade E-mini S&P contracts or similar ones you will not have
much of any problems with your fills since that market is traded
electronically. Brokers and their respective clearing firms (FCMs)
usually specialize in a few markets, so be sure to select a firm
that will cater to your needs. There is no sense in trying to
trade the S&P’s successfully through a firm that specializes in
agricultural products. Deal with a firm that will be well suited
to the trade execution requirements a day trader has. Try to
shop around and get floor access - real floor access, as
opposed to a trade desk situated somewhere on the floor that
can’t even "arb" in your trades with a hand signal during fast
market conditions. Some may argue that the quality of fills may
not be a crucial factor in the overall success of a trading
methodology. I agree - but it helps a lot in the long run and
makes your trading seem easier.
Equipment Requirements
In day trading, active participation in the trading process
requires a real-time data feed and charting program. The cost of
these essential components can be quite substantial. In position
trading, you don’t need access to real-time data - and in some
cases delayed data is even unnecessary. You may be able to
obtain your information from one of the financial newspapers
like the Wall Street Journal or Investor’s Business Daily. When
considering which of the real-time data vendors to chose as your
source, do your homework and shop around for the fastest, most
reliable and affordable. Be sure to check for compatibility
between your data vendor and the charting program you choose.
There are a wide variety of charting programs available to day
traders and their cost will correspond to their sophistication.
Some of the real-time vendors even provide you with their own
"in-house" charting program. Regardless of developer, they all
have a multitude of STATIC indicators to choose from.
Personality
More important than anything else mentioned above, the
personality of the trader plays an important and crucial role in
successful trading. You need to have a deep and insightful
understanding of your character and personality traits. Is your
make-up best suited to position or day trading? Are you even
suited to be a trader at all? The reality of the trading world
is that you don’t just trade the market - you trade yourself
in the market. If you don’t know yourself well enough to
identify your strengths and weaknesses, trading will assist you
- but at an expensive price. It would therefore make sense to
try a few of the popular personality tests to identify and
become more conscious about your strong and weak points. We all
have positive and not-so-positive traits in our personalities.
Like everything else in life, the key to success is building on
our strengths - not fighting against who we are by trying to
change our undesired traits. For example, if fast decision
making is problematic for you, then you should consider position
trading to be more suitable that day trading. Or if you’re a
great procrastinator, you must make sure that your entry order
is accompanied by a protective stop loss order, to ensure that a
losing trade is not compounded by your natural reluctance to
"put off" the proper decision. This is a personality trait that
can run you out of trading - and your equity - very quickly.
You might also find out (possibly through one of the
personality tests if you are currently unaware) that you are the
type of person who constantly strives to be the best and most
perfect at your trading. Lets label this type of person as the
Perfectionist. This type of trait can cause a lot of problems
and big losses for a trader. The Perfectionist tries extra hard
to not have any losing trades. Unfortunately for him,
this only means more disastrous losses. Multiple consecutive
losing trades handicap the Perfectionist from taking the next
trade because he’s now gun shy and scared to pull the trigger
again. The result - more lost opportunities.
A crucial factor in being a successful trader is to recognize
and believe with your heart that trading is a game of
probabilities. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. You can
separate yourself from the losers by formulating a trading plan
that helps you reduce losses while maximizing gains. Proper stop
loss placement and optimal management of winning trades are keys
to winning at the probabilities game.
Most of the time we tend to forget that we make our decisions
with our emotions and then justify with our logic. The
assumption of rational investors in the Efficient Market
Hypothesis couldn’t be further from the truth. On the contrary,
when it comes to trading we all become quite irrational. In
behavioral finance, the notion of the irrational investor is the
norm. In trading, more than anything else in life, we rely
heavily on our emotions, either through unrealistic and
ultra-optimistic profit and fortune goals - or pessimistic and
hopeless expectations based on our previous experiences. Rather
than thinking in the Present, we often think in the Past (with
our past experience associations) or in the Future (with a
desirable and idealistic outcome perception). To remain focused
in the Present and judge our trade as it unfolds Now, requires
practice. But more important than practice, you must know who
you are and understand your Trading Personality Profile first.
Trading is like a clear mirror that reflects our inner
personality and character. It is not only capable of bringing us
great financial rewards - it can also help us to know ourselves
better. This benefit can greatly contribute towards our
evolution as better individuals and human beings. This is one of
the most important reasons I have cultivated a love for trading.
It is the ultimate endeavor for a free and beautiful life.
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